How to interpret Scenario Modeling Results

Scenario Modeling evaluates Scenarios for many of the codes, programs, and energy consumption data points calculated in Ekotrope RATER. More are added based on user requests. We call the results Evaluation Metrics - or how a scenario's performance is measured (i.e., this scenario changed the HERS Index by -1.2 HERS Index points). 

There are generally 4 types of evaluation metrics: 

• Index (or Score)
• Prescriptive compliance result
• Performance compliance result
• ERI compliance result

For each of these evaluation results, SM reports detailed results. Descriptions for each type of result are as follows: 

Index (e.g., HERS Index): 

• Index: This is the Index or Score (e.g., HERS Index) of this specific scenario and energy model combination. 
• Index Change: This is the difference between the baseline index and this scenario’s index. The baseline index is this specific energy model with no design changes applied.

Prescriptive Compliance Result (e.g., 2021 IECC Prescriptive Compliance):

• Compliance: This reports if the home passes this particular energy code with the specific scenario applied. A 1 indicates pass and 0 shows fail. This considers all aspects of compliance including the performance and QA Checks. For example, if a scenario and energy model combination exceeds the performance requirement of a code but the it fails a QA Check such as not having the correct amount of ventilation, this will show 0.
• Compliance of Original Plan: This reports if the home passed this particular energy code before any scenarios were applied. A 1 shows pass and a 0 indicates fail. 

Performance: 

• Compliance: This reports if the home passes this particular energy code with the specific scenario applied. A 1 indicates pass and a 0 shows fail.  This considers all aspects of compliance including the performance and QA Checks. For example, if a scenario and energy model combination exceeds the performance requirement of a code but the it fails a QA Check such as not having the correct amount of ventilation, this will show 0 and the Buffer will show >0. 
• Compliance of Original Plan: This reports if the home passed this particular energy code before any scenarios were applied. A 1 indicates pass and a 0 shows fail. 
• Buffer: This reports how “far away” this specific energy model and scenario combination is from passing the target performance metric. If a buffer is reported to be -10% that means this energy model and scenario combination is 10% below the passing threshold for the energy model. This buffer is often reported as the the first QA check in the app for each performance compliance code or program. 
• Buffer Change: This is how much the buffer changed compared to energy model’s original buffer with no scenarios applied. A Buffer Change that is 5% is reported that means the baseline energy model may have had a Buffer of 0% and now with this Scenario applied has a buffer of 5%. 

ERI: 

• Compliance: This reports if the home passes this particular energy code with the specific scenario applied. A 1 indicates pass and a 0 shows fail. 
• Compliance of Original Plan: This reports if the home passed this particular energy code before any scenarios were applied. A 1 indicates pass and 0 shows fail. 
• Buffer: This reports how “far away” this specific energy model and scenario combination is from passing the target performance metric. If a buffer is reported to be -10% that means this energy model and scenario combination is 10% below the passing threshold for the energy model. This buffer is often reported as the first QA check in the app for each performance compliance code or program. 
• Buffer Change: This is how much the buffer changed compared to the energy model’s original buffer with no scenarios applied. A Buffer Change that is 5% is reported that means the baseline energy model may have had a Buffer of 0% and now with this Scenario applied has a buffer of 5%. 
• Score: This is the Index or Score (e.g., HERS Index) of this specific scenario and energy model combination. 
• Score Change: This is the difference between the baseline Index or Score and this scenario’s Index or Score. The baseline index is this specific energy model with no design changes applied. 
• Target Score: This is the ERI that is required to pass this code or program.

Each compliance result that includes a Buffer calculates the buffer against a unique threshold. This is what is calculated and reported for each code or program that includes a buffer.

Energy Star V3 and v3.1:

Buffer is the percent difference between the HERS index target and the HERS Index for each scenario energy model combination. 

Performance IECC 2021, 2018, 2015:

Buffer is the percent difference between the projected energy bill target (R405.2) and the projected energy bill (R405.2) for each scenario energy model combination. 

ERI IECC 2021, 2018, 2015:

Buffer is the percentage difference between the ERI index target and the ERI Index for each scenario energy model combination.

45L

Buffer is the percentage difference between the target 50% reduction in Heating and Cooling and the reduction of heating and cooling load of the scenario and energy model combination. 

State Codes:

We support dozens of state amended energy code pathway's. The output will differ depending on the specific's of the amended code. Please let us know if there is a state code that would be helpful for your team.

End Use Energy has been added to Scenario Modeling in the form of Utility Cost and Energy Consumption. This is calculated and reported for each fuel type.

Utility Cost:

Utility Cost is the total annual utility bill for the designated fuel type. A utility cost change field is also generated showing how the building design changes effect the annual bill.

Energy Consumption:

Energy Consumption is the annual consumption broken down by fuel type and expressed in MBtu (million BTUs). An energy consumption change is also generated.